Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Lineup Advice Q&A

Well, it all comes down to this.

As I put the finishing touches on this week’s Start ‘em, Sit ‘em post, I currently lead my Week 13 opponent (Brian Bassett of The Jets Blog) 61.22-36.20 in the P&G-sponsored Blogger Fantasy Football League*.

Before you get too excited for me though, take a look at who he still has left to play: QB Mark Sanchez; RB Shonn Greene; WR Danny Woodhead; TE Dustin Keller; D/ST New York Jets. Basically, if those five players average five points a piece, I’m toast.

What will make a loss burn even more is that the team I needed to lose, PUNTE‘s squad, did in fact lose. A win and I am a single game out of the final playoff spot with one week to play. I’ll have a fighting chance. A loss and I’m done, just playing Week 14 for pride.

Needless to say, I will be watching the Monday night game with great intrigue, hoping for a miracle.

Update: I don’t know how the hell it happened, but I won! Still alive baby!

Regardless of the outcome though, you can rest assured that I never bail on a fantasy football team as long as I still have games on the schedule. I simply do not believe in it. Plus, whether I’m still alive the Blogger Fantasy League or not, I have five other leagues for which I need to get ready for the playoffs.

As always, I share my research with you here at MSF Fantasy Sports. Yesterday I posted the Week 14 waiver wire sleeper picks column. In this post, I highlight players at every position that you should consider starting and others whom you should consider sitting.

Before we delve into the Week 14 start ‘em, sit ‘em picks, here is a quick note and then a recap of how I did with my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Don’t forget to check out the Text It To The House promotion. It’s the fun, easy weekly game I told you about a couple weeks back. You pick the five players who will have longest plays from scrimmage this week

And now a quick look back at my Week 13 top-line picks:

• Start em hits: Jay Cutler, New York Giants D
• Start em misses: Fred Jackson, Mario Manningham, Tony Gonzalez
• Sit em hits: Randy Moss, Kellen Winslow, Arizona Cardinals D; LT
• Sit em misses: Tom Brady (HUGE MISS!)

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start em, Sit em Projections and Q&A

Note: no teams are on bye in Week 14.

***Indianapolis and Tennessee play on Thursday night.***

Remember when reading this post that everything is relative. Just because I say “sit Player X” doesn’t mean I’d sit him in all cases. It just means that, in comparison to the general opinion of that player, who likely is not a consensus must-start (because that is who I try to pick for these columns, so that they are useful), I either like him or dislike him more than others.

If you want specific player-to-player comparisons, I’ll be posting my rankings later in this week, which will give you a more clear indication of how I view one guy versus another. This post is meant to provide general guidance on borderline starters and whether I think, generally, they should be in lineups or not.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em QB: Jay Cutler, Chicago (v New England)

No, you are not seeing things. I am recommending Jay Cutler as my start ‘em QB for the second straight week. Though Cutler underperformed my lofty expectations against Detroit in Week 13, going 21-26 for 234 yards with one TD and no INTs is nothing to be ashamed of. That’s a solid 12-15 points in any scoring system and certainly good enough to have helped you win your matchup.

In Week 13, the call was easy. Cutler had been playing well, he was facing a defense that had been carved up recently by opposing QBs, and he had a great history against them. In Week 14, the call isn’t quite so easy, but the stats and trends still suggest that it’s a good one.

First of all, let’s discuss the matchup. Cutler faces a New England secondary that, coming into Week 13, was giving up the 4th post fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. (Note: I am writing this on Monday night, so I do not know how the Patriots will fare against Mark Sanchez and the Jets, but 11 games of shoddy secondary play speaks more to me than whatever they do Monday night.)

And here is the other thing about the Patriots: they do not generate much of a pass rush from their front four. New England has to use creative blitzes to get pressure on the QB, and Cutler has been doing a much better job lately of hitting his hot receivers and not getting flustered by the blitz. Just look at his numbers: Cutler has 5 TDs and 1 INT over the last three games. For the season, he has 16 TDs, just 10 INTs (down from 26 last year), and he even has 189 rushing yards. Hey, every little bit helps right?

It’s taken me until now to really buy into the Bears as an NFC playoff contender, but they cannot be ignored any longer. The same is true with Jay Cutler. He is still capable of putting up a huge day every week – witness his 4 TD, 0 INT game in Week 12 – but what makes Cutler different this year is that he is minimizing mistakes and not putting up the truly awful games anymore. Let’s hope that continues. The matchup suggests it will.

Update: Yes, even after watching the Patriots dismantle the Jets last night, I still suggest that you start Jay Cutler. Don’t forget that the Patriots had extra time to prepare for this game. While the Jets did also (neither team had played since Thanksgiving), who do you think that benefits more – a Belichick team or a Rex Ryan team? Exactly. This week, the Pats will have less time to prepare, which could give mad scientist Mike Martz and advantage over the Pats’ young secondary. The Patriots still give up the 5th-most fantasy points to opposing QBs, and while they are improving as the season progresses, so is Cutler.

Jay Cutler fantasy football Week 14 projection: 245 yards passing, 2 TDs, 1 INT

Other start ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Joe Flacco starts against Houston. There you go.
• Josh Freeman has been surprisingly consistent all year long. He faces a Washington defense in Week 14 that typically gives up big days to opposing QBs.
• I had Kyle Orton listed here when I originally wrote this, but then pass-happy Josh McDaniels got fired, replaced by the Denver running backs coach. With Arizona boasting one of the worst run Ds in the NFL, I tend to think Knowshon Moreno will get plenty of touches, perhaps limiting Orton’s value somewhat. He’s not a bad start, but not quite as good as if McD was still around.
• Tom Brady. Can you possibly sit him?

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em QB: Matt Cassel, Kansas City (at San Diego)

Matt Cassel has been a revelation this season. Coming into Week 13, Cassel had thrown 22 TDs and only 4 INTs. He had been, in a word, incredible. Certainly, this kind of production was unexpected from a guy who threw just 16 TDs last year along with 16 INTs.

In Week 13, Cassel did not continue his streak of 2-TD games. He had thrown at least two TDs in four straight games, but tossed just one in Week 13. He wasn’t terrible – 17-31, 196 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT – but it wasn’t the explosive day we’ve come to expect. This pedestrian production was somewhat surprising considering Cassel’s success against Denver early in the season and their #31 ranking in terms of fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs.

In Week 14, Cassel has a much less promising matchup. He faces a San Diego defense that is #2 in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. And before you say that they played terribly on defense in Week 13, understand that Jason Campbell had just 117 yards and a TD…and that was above the Chargers’ season average for fantasy points allowed to QBs.

If Cassel is your #1 QB and you don’t have a decent backup, he’s okay to play this week. I list him here because I don’t think he’ll end up as a top 12 QB in my rankings, and he could be sat for someone like Josh Freeman, Kyle Orton, or Joe Flacco if that is a decision your roster provides.

Matt Cassel fantasy football Week 14 projection: 180 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT

Other sit ‘em QBs for Week 14:

• Sam Bradford faces a New Orleans pass D that doesn’t give up many passing TDs. This is a good week to sit the rookie.
• I know that a lot of people like Jon Kitna, and I have to admit that he’s playing a lot better than I thought he would filling in for Tony Romo, but I don’t like the matchup against Philadelphia.
• Tom Brady faces a Chicago defense that tops in the league at defending opposing QBs – in terms of fantasy points and TD passes allowed. It’s tough to sit him, but if you have another good-to-very-good option, this would be the week to use it. [Update: This hasn't been posted for 15 minutes yet and I already take this back. Tom Brady is carving up the Jets as we speak. I think he's hot enough right now that matchup is irrelevant. Play him!]

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em RB: Knowshon Moreno, Denver (at Arizona)

This one is pretty easy…and now that I just said that, I’m sure it’s bound to blow up in my face. But, jinxes aside, consider this:

• Arizona gives up the most fantasy points to opposing running back, as Steven Jackson found out in Week 13 when he went for 102 yards and a TD against them.
• Knowshon is coming off one of his best days in the NFL, a career-high 161 yards on 23 carries. He didn’t get into the end zone, but he ran extremely well.
• Look at Moreno’s game log. He has now been worthy of starting for four straight weeks.
• His running backs coach was just installed as the head coach. Don’t you think he’ll get his guy plenty of touches against a team that is terrible against the run?

Add it all up and it makes Knowshon Moreno a pretty obvious start candidate in Week 14. The question will be if he makes the top 10 this week. I haven’t done the rankings yet, but I expect that he will.

Knowshon Moreno fantasy football Week 14 projection: 110 yards rushing, 1 TD, 4 receptions, 35 yards

Other start ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Chris Johnson owners, I know you’re frustrated, and there are reasons for concern for the balance of the season. Week 14 is not the week to lose patience, however, as the Titans face the porous Colts run D.
• I really like Tashard Choice, as I’ve been saying in the waiver wire sleeper picks column for the past three weeks. After his 100-yard performance in Week 13, I think Choice could get a 15-20 carries against Philly in Week 14. The Eagles are in the bottom half of the league in giving up fantasy points to opposing RBs. And yes, I like Choice over Felix Jones because Choice is the one who scores the TDs.
• LeGarrette Blount continues to earn our trust. He went over 100 yards in Week 13 against a very good Falcons run D and he also scored a TD. In Week 14, Blount faces a Redskins D that let the Giants run all over it in Week 13.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em RB: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle (at San Francisco)

Marshawn, you aren’t fooling me.

I know that many of you will be impressed with Lynch’s 3-TD game in Week 13. While it was impressive, there are plenty of reasons for you to not buy into a late season resurgence for Lynch.

• In Week 13, Lynch and the Seahawks faced the Panthers, a team that is among the most generous to opposing running backs. In Week 14, Lynch and the Seahawks face the 49ers, who are among the least generous to opposing RBs.
• Look at Lynch’s game log, paying special attention to the weeks preceding his Week 13 outburst. Not only had he not had more than 13 carries in any of the five previous games, but he’d only scored once.

So, do I think Marshawn Lynch’s 3-TD game was an aberration? Yes, although that is admittedly pretty obvious. What is less obvious is if it suggests that Lynch will become useful down the stretch. I don’t think so. His previous five games speak much louder to me than one great game against a bad run D.

Marshawn Lynch fantasy football Week 14 projection: 12 carries, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 reception, 10 yards

Other sit ‘em RBs for Week 14:

• Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams seemed to be on the verge of breaking out coming into Week 13. Then they and the Dolphins offense sputtered against Cleveland. Against a Jets D that gives up the fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs, two guys who split carries don’t have a whole lot of value.
• Jonathan Stewart has a nice day against Seattle in Week 13 and has looked good since returning. The Seahawks, however, have a pretty poor run D. The Falcons, Stewart’s opponent in Week 14, do not. The going could be much tougher.
• Cedric Benson faces the Steelers in Week 14. Though he is coming off a 2-TD day against New Orleans, and though he scored against Pittsburgh earlier this year, it’s still not a matchup I like. You trust Cedric Benson at your own peril.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em WR: Anquan Boldin, Baltimore (at Houston)

It’s been a frustrating year for Anquan Boldin owners. Coming into Week 13, Boldin had only six TD catches on the season. Take away Boldin’s 3-TD, 142-yard outburst against Cleveland, and his numbers would be barely pedestrian. Basically, Boldin has been nothing more than a borderline starter for most of the season.

However, signs are pointing up for Boldin’s fantasy value, at least this week. Not only did he catch a long TD for the Ravens against Pittsburgh in Week 13, but he faces a Houston secondary that is among the worst in the league in containing opposing WRs. If you own Boldin, this is the week to play him. His next two games are against New Orleans and then Cleveland again; New Orleans has been good all year against the pass and Cleveland is vastly improved since the last time Boldin saw them.

But forget about the future right now. In this column we are concerned with Week 14. Take a look at how #1 WRs have done against Houston this year. It is pretty remarkable. I’d be shocked if Boldin didn’t put up solid numbers you this week.

Anquan Boldin fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 100 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• I know that Dwayne Bowe did nothing in Week 13, and I know he faces a tough Chargers pass D in Week 14, and I know I told you to sit Matt Cassel above…but…I’d still start Bowe, who has been too good this year for us to be soured by one bad game. (And this comes from a guy who has always hated and distrusted Dwayne Bowe.)
• I like Earl Bennett a lot this week. He is becoming Jay Cutler’s go-to guy, and the matchup against New England is very promising.
• Calvin Johnson continues to prove how amazing he is. Against the Bears stingy D and with a 3rd stringer in at QB, MegaTron still got into the end zone and provided nice value. Just keep him in your lineups. Please. Even if I change my mind later this week, tell me to shut the hell up and still start him. Okay? Okay.
• You know that you’re starting Greg Jennings. Also consider both Donald Driver and James Jones as a decent WR #3 options as well.
• Mike Williams TB against Washington is a nice start this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em WR: Any Tennessee Titans WR (v Indianapolis)

Yes, the Colts have a pretty good pass defense, which contributes to this rare team selection. More important though is the anemic recent history of the Titans passing game. Remember how Randy Moss was supposed to make the Titans more explosive? Yeah, well it hasn’t happened.

Kenny Britt is supposed to be back in Week 14, which will muddy up the Tennessee passing waters even more. And if we learned anything from the returns of Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson after long layoffs, it’s that you are usually well served to wait a week or two and let players get back up to game speed.

What Britt’s presence will do is take targets away from Moss and Nate Washington, neither of whom have done much of anything lately. We all blamed Rusty Smith after their poor Week 12 performance, but they were just as bad against the poor Jags secondary with Kerry Collins under center in Week 14.

To be perfectly frank, it seems to me like the Titans might be quitting on the 2010 season. With all the turmoil between Jeff Fisher and Vince Young, plus the five game losing streak, this is starting to seem like a lost season for the Titans. Going up against a desperate Colts team on a short week, what reason do you have to trust any of these guys? Sit ‘em all. You won’t be sorry.

Tennessee Titans WRs fantasy football Week 14 projection: 8 receptions, 90 yards, 0 TDs total

Other sit ‘em WRs for Week 14:

• Mario Manningham really hasn’t played all that well with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out. Perhaps he is just not cut out to be a #1 WR? Against the resurgent Minnesota Vikings D, I wouldn’t want Manningham to be anything more than a #3 WR, and I wouldn’t mind being able to sit him down this week.
• If Brandon Marshall comes back this week, don’t get excited. Not only will he have to face Darrelle Revis, but he’ll still have crappy Chad Henne as his QB.
• I’m not a big fan of the St. Louis WRs this week – namely Danario Alexander and Danny Amendola – because New Orleans’ pass D has been very stingy this year.
• Stevie Johnson had a rough outing in Week 13, a week after dropping the game-winning TD in OT. In Week 14, he’ll probably be blanketed by Browns rookie Joe Haden, who is becoming one of the league’s best cover corners as the season goes on.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em TE: Vernon Davis, San Francisco (v Seattle)

He’s baaack.

Well, hopefully.

Vernon Davis was outstanding in Week 13, turning four receptions into 100+ yards and a TD. In Week 14, Davis gets to face a Seahawks defense that is not good against the pass. Though they have held opposing tight ends in check decently this year, the 49ers use Davis more like a WR on some of the deeper routes where he gets most of his production.

It’s clear that Troy Smith and the 49ers have been making a more concerted effort to get Davis the ball over the last couple of weeks. In this must-win battle for the 49ers, I expect that to continue, especially if Alex Smith ends up back as the starter. He is more accurate than Troy Smith, and looks to Davis more.

Vernon Davis fantasy football Week 14 projection: 5 receptions, 75 yards, 1 TD

Other start ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Benjamin Watson faces a Buffalo defense that gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing TEs. Coming off a 100-yards, TD performance he is a solid option this week.
• Carolina is among the more generous defenses to opposing TEs. That bodes well for Tony Gonzalez this week.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em TE: Joel Dreessen, Houston (v Baltimore)

Dreeseen has been a solid option as of late. He’s been worthy of starting three straight weeks, which isn’t bad for a 2nd-stringer only playing because of Owen Daniels’ injury. However, the signs aren’t very positive for Week 14.

First off, Daniels is expected to return. There is no telling how many targets he will get, but Daniels presence certainly will reduce Dreessen’s role some. Secondly, the matchup is terrible. No defense shuts down opposing TEs more than the Ravens.

Joel Dreessen fantasy football Week 14 projection: 2 receptions, 20 yards, 0 TDs

Other sit ‘em TEs for Week 14:

• Visanthe Shiancoe just isn’t getting the red zone looks he got last year. He couldn’t take advantage of a Bills defense that has given up a lot of points to opposing TEs, so what makes us think he’ll do it against the Giants, who do a good job of minimizing TEs?
• Brandon Pettigrew has been much better with Shaun Hill in the lineup this year. Without him, Pettigrew’s numbers have suffered. He had 5 catches for 36 yards against the Bears in Week 13, and I think that’s about as much as we can expect from him right now.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Start ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Atlanta Falcons (at Carolina)

You know that I love targeting whatever defense is facing the Carolina Panthers and Jimmy Clausen. With the emergence of Mike Goodson and the return of Jonathan Stewart, the Panthers have been putting up a little bit more fight lately. Still, anytime you can face an inexperienced and unproductive QB like Jimmy Clausen, you have to like your chances.

Here is the other reason I like Atlanta this week: the strength of their defense is against the run. Yes, LeGarratte Blount has a solid day in Week 13, but the Falcons have still been very consistent containing opposing running games this year. Running the ball is all that Carolina can do. If the Falcons inhibit their ability to do so, it could put the game in Jimmy Clausen’s hands. That’s a great recipe for any defense.

Atlanta Falcons fantasy football Week 14 projection: 14 or fewer points, 3 sacks, 2 TOs

Other start ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like both the San Francisco 49ers and the Seattle Seahawks defenses in Week 14. I don’t expect a particularly high scoring game, and there should be plenty of sacks and turnovers to go around.
• Buffalo’s offense has struggled for two straight weeks now. The Cleveland Browns defense continues to improve. I like the Browns on the road this week against Buffalo.

Fantasy Football Week 14 Sit ‘em Defense/Special Teams: Tennessee Titans (v Indianapolis)

Call this one a hunch.

Tennessee’s defense has not been the reason it’s been losing lately. In fact, the Titans have held their last three opponents under 20 pts. And with the Colts coming in having given up four Pick 6′s in the last two games, you might think Tennessee’s D is one you want to play. And maybe it is, if you look at things strictly based on statistics, but I wouldn’t.

You can chalk this one up to my belief in Peyton Manning. I think he will be extra cautious with the football and limit his mistakes. I also think that the short week benefits the Colts more than it benefits the punchless Titans, who will be facing their first week playing for nothing. The Colts are still very much alive in the AFC South race and have not stopped fighting despite playing poorly. The Titans, other than Cortland Finnegan obviously, seem to have stopped fighting.

I believe Peyton and the Colts get their offense going in primetime. Do I have more than a hunch to base this off of? Not particularly, other than what I’ve already stated. But sometimes you have to trust your gut, and my gut says stay away from the Titans until they prove they haven’t quit on the season.

Tennessee Titans fantasy football Week 14 projection: 24 or more points, 1 sack, 1 TO

Other sit ‘em D/ST units for Week 14:

• I like St. Louis‘ defense when it plays at home. I do not like it as much on the road, especially not against Drew Brees and the Saints.
• I trusted San Diego‘s defense last week and they did nothing. Against a very balanced, explosive Chiefs offense in Week 14, I’m not too excited about trusting the Chargers again.

The comment section awaits. Make ‘em good questions this week. Let’s all get into the playoffs and do some damage!

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* – The P&G Blogger Fantasy League (BFL) is a group of 12 digital sports influencers competing on the NFL.com fantasy platform for the chance to win P&G product, a donation to a local charity, and a trip to Super Bowl XLV, all furnished by P&G. The NFL Entities have not offered or sponsored the sweepstakes in any way.